APMM - Automated Predictive Market Maker
Single Liquidity Pool
Yes Token ↔ No Token
Key Feature: P(Yes) + P(No) = 1.0 (Probability Consistency)
APMM Mathematical Model
Pricing Function:
P(yes) = f(L, S_yes, S_no)
L = Liquidity depth parameter
S_yes = Yes Token supply
S_no = No Token supply
Guarantee: P(Yes) + P(No) = 1.0
Four Systematic Advantages
| Advantage | Signa APMM | Traditional CLOB | Traditional LMSR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Continuous Liquidity | ✅ Algorithmic curve, trade anytime | ❌ Wait for orders | ✅ Fixed cost |
| Capital Efficiency | ✅ Single pool bilateral service | ✅ High | ❌ Cost function waste |
| Probability Semantics | ✅ Price = Market Probability | ❌ Pure price | ❌ Requires conversion |
| Initial Flexibility | ✅ Custom prior probability | ✅ Free quoting | ❌ Fixed 50/50 |
Live Operation Demo
Initial state: P(Yes) = 0.4, P(No) = 0.6
User A buys 100 USDT Yes → P(Yes) = 0.45
User B buys 200 USDT No → P(Yes) = 0.42
💡 Market probability instantly reflects collective intelligence!